December 6, 2016

A Mixed View

After a three-week run where all major U.S. indexes posted significant gains, we saw a mixed view in the market last week. The Dow was up 0.10%, but the S&P 500 lost 0.97% and the NASDAQ was down 2.65%. The MSCI EAFE‘s measure of international developed markets also dropped 0.24%. Rallies such as the one we’ve experienced since Donald Trump’s election can’t go on forever, so we aren’t too concerned about these minor pullbacks. In fact, as we’ve recently said, when you look more deeply at the data, we see many reasons to believe that our economy is moving in the right direction. Good News This Week Positive economic news for the U.S. continued to come in this week, including reports that: Unemployment dropped again to 4.6% – hitting its lowest level since August 2007. Manufacturing increased for the third straight month. Personal income increased 0.6% in October. Q3 GDP was 10% higher than previously thought. Of course, despite the ongoing indications that our economy is doing well, everything isn’t perfect in the U.S. We’d like to see the economy growing even faster than it is. And while unemployment is low, the measure of people who are underemployed is still […]
November 22, 2016

Stocks Up, Fed Increase Likely

For the second straight week, the major domestic indexes all ended in positive territory: The S&P 500 was up 0.81%, the Dow increased 0.11%, and the NASDAQ added 1.61%. While American indexes performed well, MSCI EAFE’s international equities declined 1.58%. Stocks are up, fed increase likely. With the long, drawn-out presidential election behind us, investors are beginning to look past politics and pay closer attention to the economic fundamentals. As we’ve shared in recent market updates, the economy shows many signs of strength and growth. In the past few weeks alone: GDP beat expectations. Hourly earnings increased. The Dow reached an all-time high. New unemployment claims hit a 43-year low. Housing starts increased 25.5%. Of course, the economy is far from perfect – and growth is still slower than we’d like – but the overarching message is that the economy is doing well. Thus, we were not surprised this week when Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said an interest rate hike “could well become appropriate relatively soon.” Despite what talking heads might warn on television, you should not be afraid of increasing interest rates. The last increase, which took place in December 2015, may have contributed to the volatility we experienced […]
November 15, 2016

A Week of Surprises

Last Tuesday, many Americans watched in great surprise as Donald Trump won our presidential election. Just that day, the New York Times had placed Hillary Clinton’s odds of winning at 85%, based on a range of state and national polls. But, like the Brexit vote this past June, 2016 seems to be the year of unexpected outcomes. As predicted, the markets initially reacted to uncertainty as they often do: with losses. Futures for the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 all dropped at least 4% in the middle of the night after Trump’s win. But come Wednesday morning, everyone was in for another surprise. Despite many predictions that the markets would sell-off if Trump won, all of the major U.S. indexes ended the week ahead. The S&P 500 was up 3.80%, the Dow gained 5.36%, NASDAQ increased 3.78%, and MSCI EAFE added 0.05%. The Dow even closed at an all-time high on Thursday and posted its best week since 2011, despite being slightly down on Friday. Needless to say, these two developments last week gave significant surprises for most people. Let’s look a bit deeper at the market’s reaction and what may lie ahead. Understanding the Rally The markets hate uncertainty, […]
October 18, 2016
2016 Election and the Stock Market

The 2016 Election and the Stock Market

Over the past few months, the election and the stock market are topics of discussion on everyone’s lips. Now we are less than a month away from the big day. Despite much debate regarding how the outcome will affect different areas, we have yet seen how it will affect the stock market. With the United States as a key driver of the global economy, the result is likely to yield a reaction. No matter which of the paths we take, we can be sure after the election things will look very different. Overall, we should see a huge impact on health care, taxes, federal regulations, immigration policies, and more in the coming years. However, before we make predictions regarding this election and the stock market; let’s see what effect previous elections had on the stock market and global economy. Which combination is best? According to history, the stock market performed a lot better when the incumbent party won the election. Regardless of which party is that retains the seat, the election results helped the stock market to stabilize. With this being said, there is a slight swing for Republican Presidents but nothing too noticeable. While the decision of who sits […]